Tesla reported on July 2 that the company had manufactured 5,031 Model 3s over the previous seven days. But questions were raised in Wall Street about Tesla’s ability to sustain the production rate.

Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker, which has been very accurate in the past is now showing that Tesla has held on to its 5000/per week Model 3 production in the first ten days of July.

According to the tracker Tesla is now building 5,168 Model 3s per week and forecasts the electric car maker to sustain the current rate of production over the next couple of weeks.

Earlier in Q2-2018, CEO Elon Musk urged his team to target a peak production rate of 6,000 Model 3s per week to allow some margin of error.

“Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.” – Elon Musk’s email to employees, April 2018

Increasing peak production capacity further will not be easy considering the difficulty with which the company ramped up production in the last few quarters, but if achieved it will help Tesla sustain 5000 per week production rate through the third quarter.

Tesla has been extremely successful in the past converting their end of the quarter peak production rate into sustainable weekly production rate in the following quarter.

Past Records

Tesla exited its 2017 fourth quarter with a peak model 3 production rate of 793 units/wk and went on to build 9,766 units in the following quarter (Q1-2018). An average of 751 units per week over 13 weeks.

Tesla’s peak model 3 production capacity reached 2,020/wk by the end of first quarter of 2018 and the company manufactured 28,578 Model 3s in the following quarter (Q2-2018). An average of 2,198 units per week over 13 weeks.

“In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles.”

Tesla delivered 24,620 Model 3s, 13,690 Model S and 13,420 Model X in the United States. A record breaking 51,730 vehicles in six months (January to June 2018), data from CleanTechnicia shows.

If Tesla converts its burst build capacity in June into sustainable weekly production rate, as they have done in the past, expect Tesla to build more than 65,000 Model 3s in the third quarter.

 

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