According to Bloomberg Tracker that estimates Model 3 production by tracking VIN registration, Tesla has crossed a major milestone of building 70,000 Model 3s. As if that production stat is not enough to digest, Tesla registered 2,207 Model 3 VINs today. Highest VIN registered now reads 101,352.
#Tesla registered 2,207 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 101352. https://t.co/IKvPZI3hqC
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) August 18, 2018
It’s just a number if you look at it, but if you rewind the clock a bit then the number will make a boat load of difference.
Tesla took four quarters to go from building 0 to 38,344 Model 3s (between third quarter of 2017 to second quarter of 2018).
Now, according to Bloomberg tracker, Tesla may have built more than 31K Model 3s during the third quarter and we are only half way through the quarter.
The furious pace of VIN registration in the last eight weeks makes one expect Tesla to build more Model 3s in the last two months than what the company built in the previous four quarters.
Model 3 Production (Q3-17 to Q2-18) = 38,344
Model 3 VINs registered after July 1 = 44,955
Now that we have reached a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, we are focused on further ramping production, and achieving profitability and continuous cost efficiencies. We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3, which will represent an increase of 75% to 92% from the prior quarter. – Q2 18 shareholder letter
I think Tesla underestimated its production numbers for the quarter as the company has guided for 50K to 55k units. Tesla still has six more weeks left in the quarter and the company is not going to stop ramping up, because the newly built “Under the Tent” assembly line GA4 has plenty of room to increase capacity.
I have predicted that Tesla will build at least 60,000 Model 3s during the third quarter. If Tesla keeps registering Model 3 VINs, I may have to revisit my estimates. But for now, I am going to stick to my prediction.
60,000 Model 3s during the third quarter. The lower end of Tesla Model 3 production.
