According to the Bloomberg Tracker that estimates Tesla Model 3 production by tracking VIN registrations, Tesla is now building 6,278 cars per week. Tesla was targeting peak production of 6,000 Model 3s by the end of this month and it looks like they have achieved it a full week before their self-imposed deadline.
We have been following Tesla Model 3 production closely, and due to the furious pace of VIN registrations this month we wrote on 11th August that, its “likely that Tesla is inching closer to 6,000 units per week production rate.”
Our reasoning was a very simple one. Tesla took only 13 days in August to register nearly the same amount of VINs it registered in July. With Tesla crossing peak production of 5,000 units by the end of June, the rapid acceleration in August must be the result of a further increase in production capacity.
As you can see from the graph below, Tesla is cranking up Model 3 production.
The highest VIN registered by the end of June was 56,397. Total Cars #Tesla produced till end of June was 41,029. It’s really not worth it, gaming. VIN has to lead, not lag. But as you said, we can wait for Q3 numbers. As of now guidance for 50k to 55K looks really good.
— Shudeep C (@ShudeepC) August 20, 2018
We received a decent amount of flak for our earlier article on Twitter as some blamed Tesla for gaming the tracker by registering more VINs. But that argument holds no water because if they wanted to game it, then they should have done it Q4-17 or at least Q1-18. But the following table shows no signs of gaming.
As you can see from the table above, Model 3 production has closely tracked VIN registrations the way it should be, with VINs leading production figures. Auto companies need to forecast demand and register VINs accordingly.
Cumulative production was 41,029 units by the end of June, while the highest VIN registered was 56,397. We really don’t see any gaming there, because Tesla was building 5,000+ Model 3 per week at the end of June, so at the minimum, the company would need 5,000 to 10,000 VINs in buffer. Tesla had around 15,000.
Tesla’s Highest VIN is now at 108,729.
The electric car maker has now registered a massive 52,332 VINs since the start of the third quarter and we still have five more weeks left. The Elon Musk-led company has guided for third quarter Model 3 production of 50,000 to 55,000 units, which we believe is a gross underestimation. We expect Tesla to build at least 60,000 Model 3s during the quarter.
We did miss our estimates for the second quarter production of Model 3. We were expecting Tesla to build at least 30,000 Model 3 during the second quarter but the company reported 28,578. Missed it by around 1,500 units.
We are hopeful that we will do better this time. Five more weeks to go.
