The next two weeks are critical to Model 3 production as well as Model 3 deliveries, but Musk has openly admitted that the second part currently represents a “logistics nightmare.” However, his brother Kimbal recently said this on CNBC’s Closing Bell:
“This month is an exciting month for us. You know, it’s really gonna blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just the next couple of weeks.”
The last minute ramp on Model 3 deliveries shouldn’t come as a surprise. Tesla has always performed best under pressure, and the final month of the quarter has typically delivered stunning numbers for the electric car maker.
But this particular quarter – Q3-18 – is different from other quarters in the past for a number of reasons. How so?
First of all, this is the quarter that Tesla has promised that it will be profitable in, and that it aims to be cash flow positive from this point on. That’s a huge promise to investors that Musk can’t afford not to keep.
Second, the company is undergoing scrutiny for Musk’s August snafu of announcing that he planned to take Tesla private. The news itself wasn’t shocking, just the fact that he claimed to have “funding secured.” That’s what got everyone’s goat, including Tesla’s Board of Directors. Three weeks later Musk rescinded, saying that staying public was in everyone’s interest.
Third, the Model 3 is really what Tesla is all about up to this point. The “affordable” Tesla might still not be here, but the fact that people are trading in their Priuses shows that the Model 3 is the start of a new era of mass-market EVs with satisfying range and exciting performance. This is the real straw that broke the ICE camel’s back. That means Model 3’s performance on every front is being closely watched by anyone remotely connected with or interested in Tesla Inc. and Elon Musk.
Finally, the Model 3 is yet to move overseas. Even though it’s been teased in markets like Australia and Hong Kong, it isn’t available to buy in any of these markets. Europe represents a big opportunity for Tesla, but it must first prove itself against auto giants in its home turf. Otherwise, it will never get the kind of respect it deserved in international markets.
All eyes are on the final ten days of the third quarter and how Model 3 numbers shape up in that time. For now, estimates are largely optimistic based on analysts from at least two investment firms confirming that all is well with the Model 3. In addition, the media has picked up signals that delivery nightmares are suddenly going to turn into a paradise of Model 3 deliveries in the final two weeks. Let’s watch closely as Tesla approaches the end of the third quarter 2018.
