After shattering a long list of delivery records in September, Tesla Model 3 sales dipped in October, only to recover slightly in November.

The Elon Musk-led company will need a solid performance in December to finish the year on a high. According to initial estimates by Insideevs, Tesla has sold 24,460 Model S,3, X in the United States in November 2018.

Model S – 2,750

Model X – 3,200

Model 3 – 18,650

Why Tesla Needs a Great December?

Tesla delivered 55,840 Model 3s in the third quarter of 2018. If the October and November Model 3 sales estimates are to be believed, Tesla needs to deliver at least 19,440 units in December to match its third-quarter numbers.

Tesla Model 3 Sales in the United States 2018
Tesla Model 3 Sales in the United States 2018
  • Several media reports indicated that Tesla is getting closer to a burst build (maximum production capacity) of 1,000 Model 3s per day.

  • Customers who take delivery of Tesla after December 31, 2018, will only be eligible for $3,500 tax credit. The more units Tesla delivers in December, the more customers will avail the full $7,500 tax credit.

  • Tesla does not need analysts questioning its ability to further ramp up Model 3 production as the company prepares itself to deliver Model 3 in Europe and APAC in the first half of 2019.

  • Questions about Model 3 production ramp will weigh heavily on Tesla stock price.

Model S and Model X Sales holding their ground

Though many expected Model S and Model X sales to suffer due to increasing competition,  Tesla’s flagship vehicles have held their ground in the United States.

Between January 2018 and November 2018, Tesla has sold 22,495 Model S and 22,000 Model X, compared to 22,085 Model S and 18,390 Model X the company sold last year during the same period.

Tesla has sold 44,495 Model S and X so far in 2018, compared to last year’s 40,475 units.

A growth of nearly 10%.

Tesla may have already covered itself against the US-China Trade War fallout:

The trade war has undoubtedly taken a toll on Tesla’s fortunes in the world’s number one auto market. Tesla was the first automaker to increase its price by nearly 20% in China in June, before slashing it by 12% to 16% in November.

According to our estimates, Tesla sold 16,500 to 17,000 Model S and Model X in China last year. By increasing its sales by more than 4,000 units in the United States, with December sales yet to be counted in, Tesla has already provided cover for nearly a quarter of its sales in China.

Production Cap Helps

Tesla delivered 101,250 Model S and Model X in 2017. But the company has guided for only 100,000 units in 2018. Tesla is well on its way to deliver on that promise.