Though Tesla successfully converted its max production capacity reached in Q4-17 and Q1-18 into sustained production capacity in Q1-18 and Q2-18, questions were raised about Tesla’s ability to sustain 5000 Model 3s per week “burst build” capacity the company reached in the last week of June.

Tesla seems to have maintained Model 3 production pace the company set in the last week of June, according to Twitter user Vicki Salvador, a Production Associate at Tesla.

It’s a little difficult to accept every information that flows through Twitter, but the pace of VIN registration suggests that Tesla’s production has maintained its brisk pace in July.

The Growing VINs

  • The highest VIN registered in March was 20,581. By end of June, highest VIN registered by Tesla was 56,397, a difference of 35,816.

  • Tesla produced 28,578 Model 3s during the three month period.

  • In the last thirteen days, Tesla has registered 15,503 Model 3 VINs, which is a lot because Tesla never registered that many VINs in less than two weeks.

Tesla Model 3 VINs
Tesla Model 3 VINs

VIN registrations alone will not be enough to accurately calculate production numbers, but its a fairly decent leading indicator to track the pace of production.  Car makers will have to anticipate their production capacity and accordingly register the VINs. If they are going to build 1000 cars in the following week, they will register well above that mark and assign VINs to every car before it enters the assembly line.

The Shrinking Delivery Timeline

Tesla has also updated Model 3 delivery timelines. The shrinking delivery timeline is another indication that things are going well in Tesla production lines.

Waiting period for Tesla Model 3 Performance version is now 1 to 3 months instead of the earlier 2 to 4 months.

Long range dual motor now gets a 2 to 4 months delivery window, down from 3 to 5 months.

Rear wheel drive gets 1 to 3 months delivery window, down from 3 to 5 months.


Source: @Model3VINs,


  1. At this point production numbers are not the newsworthy event. Tesla just told everyone that they arerunning out of demand for higher optioned Model 3s – they opened up ordering, allowing anyone to order a high optioned Model 3 and bypass all of those lowly base Model 3 customers. They also stated that they will produce the base Model 3 in 6 to 9 months, which guarantees that none of these
    less wealthy customers will get a $7500 tax credit and, what’s worse, few will get the $3750 reduced tax credit either, as Tesla is greedily building high profit Model 3s before any base model. But Tesla is about to face an obstacle far more formidable than mere production rates – competition. The more technologically advanced Porsche Taycan (recharges twice as fast as a Tesla Model S, and has greater range) will do VERY well against high end Model S and highly optioned Model 3 ehicles. Also the Jaguar I Pace and new Nissan Leaf provide further competiiton, and one upcoming Buick , the Enspire electric, will do VERY well against several Tesla vehicles. Those are just the first half dozen of a reportted 120 plus electric car models flowing from the world’s automakers, who have vast numbers of loyal customers who would never switch to an erratically run ,unreliable company like Tesla – they will buy their automaker’s electrics.

    • Thanks for the comment. Agree with some and disagree on others. Guess we both know where we stand. Cheers.


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