Model 3 Production Q4 2018

According to Bloomberg Tracker that estimates Tesla Model 3 production, the electric car maker built 60,862 Model 3s in the fourth quarter of 2018, which is 7,623 units more than what the company built in the third quarter of 2018.

Bloomberg Tracker has its fair share of critics for not being accurate. In the third quarter of 2018, Tesla reported building 53,239 Model 3s. According to Bloomberg, the tracker “overestimated output by just 0.4 percent, or fewer than 220 cars”.

Bloomberg Tracker has its fair share of critics for not being accurate. In the third quarter of 2018, Tesla reported building 53,239 Model 3s. According to Bloomberg, the tracker “overestimated output by just 0.4 percent, or fewer than 220 cars”.

“Back in the first quarter, the tracker underestimated the actual production total by less than 5 percent. In the second quarter, the model low-balled Tesla’s production by just 2 percent. In each instance, the tool was more accurate than the Wall Street’s consensus. “

Now the tracker estimates fourth quarter production to be at 60,862 Model 3 units. That places Model 3 production in the fourth quarter at 4,667 units per week, higher than what the company did in the third quarter, but less than the above 5,000 units per week production rate most of us were expecting from the company.

According to Bloomberg Tesla built 60,862 Model 3s in the fourth quarter of 2018
Bloomberg:
Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 155,131 Model 3s so far—or 60,862 in the current quarter—and is now building approximately 4,615 a week.

Nevertheless, it’s a massive achievement by the company to build around 60,862 units in the fourth quarter; and if you add the 8,048 Model 3 units that were in transit at the end of third quarter, Tesla must have had around 68,000 units to deliver in the last three months.

Model 3 Deliveries Q4 2018

Media reports claimed that Tesla had around 3,000 Model 3 vehicles left in the inventory in the last few days of December. If the reports and Bloomberg estimates are correct, Tesla will be looking at a delivery record of 65,000 units during the fourth quarter of 2018.

According to Tesla’s third quarter guidance, the company was on-course to deliver 100,000 Model S and Model X in 2018. Tesla has to deliver 28,240 units of Model S and Model X in the last quarter to reach its 2018 guidance.

If Tesla delivers 65,000 Model 3s and 28,000 Model S and Model X units, it will take total deliveries to 93,000 units, which is nearly 90% of what the company delivered in the 12 months of 2017.

In the last few weeks Tesla has played every trick in the sales playbook to increase its sales. The electric car maker brought its referral program from the dead, teasing customers with six months of free unlimited supercharging.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised customers who made a good faith effort to buy the car before December 31, 2018, will have the tax credit shortfall covered if Tesla fails to deliver the car on time to get the full tax credit, then the company offered discounts to employees who join the Autopilot Hardware 3 testing program.

TechCrunch reported yesterday that 44 Tesla stores, including locations in California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York and Ohio, were open until midnight Monday to help Tesla clear its inventory.

All those efforts must have helped the company maximize deliveries in the United States and help customers avail the full federal tax credit of $7,500. Customers who take deliveries after December 31st, 2018 are eligible for a tax credit of only $3,750.

The electric car maker must have exhausted its reservation backlog in the United States and most customers who are still waiting to place their orders are waiting for the $35,000 standard battery Model 3.

To further deflate their waiting hopes, the federal tax credit will only be $3,750 for the next six months and $1,875 for six months after that.

Tesla’s decision to export Model 3 to Europe and China in the first half of 2019 will help the company cover the anticipated demand shortfall in the United States, thanks to the size of the premium sedan market in Europe and China.

If Tesla delivers 93,000 units in the fourth quarter, the company would have delivered a record 247k units in fiscal 2018, that’s nearly 2.5 times Tesla’s 2017 delivery record.